Surfing the March Bubble

It is that time of year when 75% of ESPN talk revolves around the metaphor of “the bubble”.  What exactly is “the bubble”? For sports enthusiasts it is a figurative bubble, the perfect description for college basketball’s programs, surfing the line between good or not good enough come the field of sixty-eight in March. The standard by which these bubble teams are selected is both formulaic (record, wins vs. top 25, strength of schedule, conference play) and muddied in personal opinion. Every year a group of three to five teams have legitimate gripes for being ignored on selection Sunday.

For example, Tom Izzo’s Michigan St. Spartans (17-12, 9-8, sos: 8) peculiar play has many March Maniacs scratching their heads. Two years ago the Spartans were a perennial squad, losing to North Carolina in the title round. Now, with numerous injuries to key players–Korie Lucious and Kalin Lucas–the Spartans once solidified dominance is lilting into peril. Their 1-8 record against top twenty five teams proves their fall into mediocrity. Yet, the Spartans play in a tough conference with the likes of Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Purdue, blended with the fact that many of their eight losses to top teams have come by five points or fewer, may work as a postitive entity come selection Sunday. In the world of college basketball there is such a thing as a “good loss,” which the Spartans have plenty of.  The committee also has what I call a “three year bias”–an amnesia to current circumstances and a love for programs who boded well in the tournament two or three years back.  The Spartans’ run a couple of years ago, a two point loss to #1 Ohio St. in Columbus last week, and a win on Saturday against Michigan, should be enough to get them in this year. I predict they’ll be selected as an eight or nine seed and give a top seed a serious headache in the second round.

The selection process also takes into consideration what type of conference  a team plays in. Unfortunately this is not a sure sign of  how good or bad a team is, but is something taken into account year in and year out. If you play in the Big East, ACC, Big 12, Big 10, or SEC, you are looked upon more favorably, due to your teams “tougher” conference schedule. For a team like the Butler Bulldogs (21-9, 13-5, sos: 79), this fact may haunt them this year, and it should. Despite their stunning run into the title game against Duke in last years tournament, the Bulldogs have underachieved this season with losses to teams like Evansville, Wright St., Youngstown St. (twice), and Valporaiso. A 13-5 record in the Horizon league is piss poor for a team with three returning starters from last year’s squad.  Add in the fact that Butler is just 5-6 against the top 100 this season, with their only quality win coming against Florida St., and I believe the Bulldogs should be looking on the outside in this postseason. They will need at least two or three wins in the their Conference tournament to be given any consideration.

Seth Greenberg’s Virginia Tech Hokies (19-9, 9-6, sos: 89) know all too well what it’s like to have their bubbles popped. It seems every year the Hokies arise as a bubble team come March, no matter how strong the ACC conference is that year. The reason? Greenberg’s fear in putting together a really tough schedule. Their schedule ranks just 89th in the NCAAs, which means that even with their win last week against the best team in the country, Duke, the committee doubts their relevance come the field of sixty-eight. To be fair to VT, they are 7-6 against the top 100 this season, and have no legitimately bad losses. I think it is fair to say that even in a down year, the ACC is a power conference that would give any mid-major elite (Butler, Utah St.) issues. That taken into account, I personally believe the win against Duke solidified this team come March. But my gut tells me they still need a win against Clemson on Saturday and one win in the ACC tournament to have a real shot at making the tourney. If they do, senior star guard Marcus Delaney will make some noise in the tourney and lead the Hokies to at least one major upset.

An interesting team is Stu Morill’s Utah St. Aggies (27-3, 14-1, sos: 107). Morill’s twelve years with the Aggies has been one of the most dominant stretches any coach has had in America. Over the last twelve years, the Aggies are 92-8 in conference home games. Their overall mark of 294-99 shows their consistency, and seven births proves their worthiness in the eyes of the committee.  More dominate this year, the Aggies have made a show of the WAC conference. But that may be the biggest flaw on their resume. With only four total games against the top 100 teams, the Aggies are 2-2 (0-2 against the top twenty five).  The weakness of their conference schedule leaves their “dominance” up for interpetation. My belief on the matter is that yes, the WAC is weaker then a major conference, but when you dominate the way the Aggies have, they must be rewarded. I bet the committee wants to see at least two wins in the Conference tournament to solidify this team in March. If they do they won’t be upset, because the Aggies are a perfect pick to roll some upsets.

Not only is the bubble relevant for those teams looking to get into the tournament, but is also a real presence for those teams hoping to receive a #1 seed. The BYU Cougars (27-3, 13-2) blowout loss to New Mexico 82-64 last night, knocked them from the ranks of #1 come the NCAA tournament. Their lower strength of schedule compared to the new perspective top seeds–Ohio St., Kansas, Duke, and Pittsburgh or Purdue, will hurt them when the committee looks at their resume in the coming weeks. Add in the loss of their third leading scorer Brandon Davies, and the Cougars look to be falling apart at the seams.  A two seed is certain come March, but the question will be whether or not Fredette has enough in the tank to carry them from that point on. As Dan Patrick’s side-kick Fritzy so elogantly put in his mock headline, “BYU can Fredette a #1.”

Other teams worth your attention: Florida St., Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, Alabama, Richmond, Washington, and Marquette. Pay attention to the conference tournaments, and watch for each of these teams health and quality of wins. If they make a strong enough case, a bid is probably within their grasps.

–Luke Johnson