Western Conference Finals – Fansmanship

Halfway Home: NBA Western Conference Second Half Preview

Matt Levine — Wed, 30 Jan 2013 14:52:55 +0000

Predictions in sports can be just as fun as what actually happens and a lot of time many people do it. Every person has their own unique way of predicting outcomes, some go through the purity of stats or some use just the heart and will of a team or player. Either way, predictions can be a way for a fan, analyst or gambler to have and feel like they are involved with the actual games being played. As for me, I have made many predictions throughout my life, some that have come true and some that haven’t and I will be the first one to admit when I am wrong. On that note, here is my prediction for the Western Conference when the season comes to an end in April, a small breakdown of each team and some playoff predictions with a little over half the season complete:

I’m predicting Russell Westbrook and the Thunder losing to the Lakers in the NBA Finals.
By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA, via Wikimedia Commons

1. San Antonio Spurs:

The Spurs have been one of the best and classiest teams in the West for years and with the core of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili still together and still playing well, you can never count out the four-time champions

2. Oklahoma City Thunder

The reigning Western Conference champs haven’t stopped dominating the West as they did a year ago. The move to swap James Harden for Kevin Martin was a highly talked about one but I liked the trade very much. Kevin Durant is now forced to control the ball more, something I feel the Thunder need to do if they want to get better.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

I know we are all used to seeing the Lakers around this spot but the tables have turned this year and congratulations to the Clippers for that. I think they are the team with the most depth in the NBA and can be a scary matchup come playoff time.

4. Golden State Warriors:

In the biggest turnaround of any team this season, the Warriors make my fourth seed in the West and I believe they can do some damage. They are a great shooting team and the health of Stephen Curry has boosted them to an unusual (for them) level. Could it be possible that San Francisco and its surrounding areas can get all three major sport titles? The 49ers play in the Super Bowl this Sunday and the Giants have already won the World Series.

5. Denver Nuggets:

18-3 at home, that’s the first stat I will throw out for the Nuggets. This is one of the best home teams in the NBA and they can be one of the most dangerous. They took the Lakers to the brink last season in the playoffs and have learned from that experience. I liked the move to bring in Andre Iguodala as he adds defense and explosiveness, which was the strength of the Nuggets before the move.

6. Memphis Grizzlies:

This team started out hot and has cooled down since. They are the best defensive team in the NBA with only allowing 89.5 points per game and have one of the best starting lineups with Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Mike Conley. Look for the Grizzlies to make a run or even make my predicted Clipper matchup to be the best of the first round as it was last season.

7. Houston Rockets:

The Rockets barely missed the taste of the postseason last year. Since then, they’ve traded for all-star James Harden and point guard Jeremy Lin. This is a very young team but the leadership of Harden and Lin will guide them to the playoffs. I don’t trust Harden in the clutch, something that is so important as the star player of a team. He is a marvelous player but needs to work on that aspect of his game.

8. Los Angeles Lakers:

Yes, I know that this team has been in the gutter of the standings all season but I believe they will turn it around but only as the eighth seed. Led by Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard the Lakers will push their ways into the playoffs and from there you never know what can happen. They dug a steep hole for themselves but this is a whole new season especially for this team.

Notable Mentions: Utah Jazz, Portland Trailblazers and Dallas Mavericks

PREDICTIONS:

First Round:

1. San Antonio Spurs vs. 8. Los Angeles Lakers: Lakers in six (upset)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 7. Houston Rockets: Thunder in five

3. Los Angeles Clippers vs. 6. Memphis Grizzlies: Clippers in seven

4. Golden State Warriors vs. 5. Denver Nuggets: Warriors in seven

Semi Finals:

4. Golden State Warriors vs. 8. Los Angeles Lakers:

Lakers win the Pacific division showdown in five games. The Lakers size and experience are too much for the young up and coming Warrior team. The Lakers take on the Thunder in a playoff series re-match from last season.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 3. Los Angeles Clippers:

The Thunder win this exciting and back-n-fourth playoff series in seven games. The Thunder make it to their third consecutive conference finals and look to go back to the NBA Finals but standing in their way is the 32-time conference champion Los Angeles Lakers

Conference Finals:

2. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8 Los Angeles Lakers:

This is where it gets interesting since I believe these are the two best teams in the Western Conference despite the difference in records. This will be a physical and fast-paced series, which favors the Thunder but I can’t count out Kobe and company. The Lakers match-up very well against the Thunder. If the Lakers can even mildly contain Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrok, they can win as they did the other night. I look for this to be the best series of the Western playoffs with the Lakers coming out on top in this hard fought and mentally draining seven game series.

2013 Western Conference Champions: 8. Los Angeles Lakers

I’m not saying the Lakers will win the NBA title but I do believe they will make it back to the NBA Finals after what seemed like a hopeless season. It won’t be easy as the West is scary-good, but Kobe Bryant is in search of another ring and won’t be denied by the likes of anyone in the West. I’m sticking with my pre-season pick, the Los Angeles Lakers.

Luke’s Western Conference Finals Breakdown

Luke Johnson — Sat, 26 May 2012 06:42:38 +0000

For the 2nd year in a row, Kobe Bryant and the all mighty Laker Show are on the outside looking in. Even without the Lakers, there are four remaining participants with a righteous chance at league superiority.

For the San Antonio Spurs, none of this new. While the league has celebrated the Lakers, Hollywood part deuce — the Clippers, the return of the Chowds — Boston Celtics and evil three (now two) in Miami, the poised veteran Spurs quietly go about their business, methodically behind the scenes.

Gregg Popovich — favorite, for coach of the year — has brilliantly woven together the champion tested trinity of Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan with skilled youth ( Dejuan Blair, Kawhi Leonard, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter). The Spurs also got well-timed mid-season additions of Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson. These veterans lengthen the rotation and give the team two more dynamic all-around scorers.

This year’s Spurs are unlike the defensive-minded Spurs teams of the past. This year’s version ranked 1st in points scored while maintaining their defensive identity, 6th overall. They were 1st in three-point field goal percentage and overall field-goal percentage, pacing their usual offensive efficiency. Without question, the youth of the team has lit a spark under their elder statesmen. Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, and Mau Ginobili each had their best season in three years. Parker’s season was the most notable and while his numbers were not as flashy as Kevin Durant or LeBron James, (18 points, 3 rebounds, 8 assists per game, 48% FGs), he had an MVP-level season.

How important will that veteran depth be?

The uptempo Thunder will provide an answer. Durant, Westbrook and company ran the “veteran depth” of the Lakers in five games. The Thunder have evolved the right way over the last three years, as they continue their ascent toward NBA dominance. While their superstars have established themselves, the team has also discovered burgeoning talents along the way, including James Harden, Serge Ibaka and Erik Maynor. Coach Scott Brooks, has masterfully crafted together a young team of personalities, and made sure players know their roles.

While many have argued that the best facilitator on the team is James Harden, Coach Brooks has maintained trust with radically dynamic, Russell Westbrook. Westbrook responded, putting together his best season, exuding team orientation, and deferring his shot (at times) to Durant. This dissolved plausible tension between the two stars and relayed belief in his fellow players. Westbrook’s ability to put the team first has helped the Thunder build a strong network of unselfish attitudes.

Thrust this recipe into a fan-crazed “small-town” metropolis like Oklahoma City, and the Thunder have one of the best home court advantages in all of sports. The Ford Center rocks and roles with the Thunder blue, igniting a team of young believers with a much needed chip on their shoulder.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook definitely have something to prove. Dissolving in the Western Finals to the would be champion, Dallas Mavericks, last year brought into question whether or not the two stars could co-exist, and whether they were built with a champion’s poise. This year has been different: Durant and Westbrook have backed each other in the media, while the Moses-bearded Harden has slowly become the new era version of Manu Ginobili.

Maturation, when developed the right way, is a slow, soggy process. One that, if waited for, can build a perennial power from the ground-up. Along their journey, the Thunder have bonded and gelled a unified front — one that finished 2nd in points scored, 4th in three point field goal percentage, 9th in total defense, 2nd in steals and 1st in blocked shots.

These facts you need to know before selecting your Western Finals Winner

1. The Spurs have won eight of the last ten meetings between the two teams.

2. Tony Parker scored a season-high 42 points on 29 shots against Russell Westbrook in their last meeting.

3. Parker has historically struggled guarding stronger more agile point guards. This is important because he will have to defend the Westbrook-Durant pick-and-roll.

4. The Spurs are 8-0 in the playoffs this season.

5. The Thunder came from behind three times against Lakers in the fourth quarter of the conference semi-finals series. Will they be able to do the same against the Spurs?

6. The Thunder are averaging 1.08 points per possession in playoffs; the Spurs, 1.18.

Ultimately, the series will come down to both teams’ big three and whether or not the cerebral spurs or quick Thunder can guard the pick and roll. Parker is a blur in the open court and his team’s spark. If he gets off hot like he did in the teams’ last meeting, the series could be over quickly . When guarding the Spurs in the open court, a team must play the corners for the pull up three and partly sag, to hinder the erratic Parker’s drive. Getting the Spurs into a half-court game is not a guarantee of victory by any means, but beating an aging Tim Duncan is the only way the Thunder can beat the Spurs.

The X- factors on the Thunder’s side, are both Westbrook and Harden. Can Westbrook divert Parker’s drive, create turnovers and get himself into the open court where he’s best? Can the Spurs step in front of Westbrook’s arrow-like split of the pick and roll (between the pick instead of over it) and rotate quickly enough to disturb his above the rim aggression? Harden IS the team’s best facilitator and is close to the quickest guy on the court. His use of body control to draw fouls on the perimeter could be something that gets Parker, Neal, Danny Green and Ginobili into foul trouble.

Oddly enough, Durant is odd man out. Despite his overall impact on the series — which will be huge — the reigning scoring champ will act as decoy and “another option” to create diversity within the Thunder attack. This isn’t to say Durant can struggle in the series and the Thunder win. But it is to say, if Westbrook and Harden can out-match Parker and Ginobili, the series should belong to the Thunder. Who can possibly shut down the most fluidly gifted scorer in the league? Second-year player Danny Green is the Spurs’ best option, but the concept of him stifling Durant’s scoring is a bit far-fetched. In their last meeting, Green disrupted Durant the best he could, and the star finished 8 of 19 from the floor with 25 points.

I’m bent on believing in cerebral experience above and beyond maturing youth. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if the Thunder made a run at winning a championship, I would be more surprised to see the Spurs ousted in the Western Conference Finals. A reborn Tim Duncan has solidified the Spurs as not just a run and gun squad but as a half court, beat you up, shot clock working post threat also. This will be too much for the Thunder. The presumed “passing of the torch” between the two similar teams, will not be this year. Duncan is hungry for a 5th ring to continue his ascension into a top – ten player of All – Time, Parker is hungry for league-wide adoration (historically ignored in great point guard talks) and Gregg Popovich desires his name to be among the likes of Phil Jackson, Red Aurbach, Pat Riley and Lenny Wilkens.

Next year Thunder. Spurs in 6.