I know who the champion of this year’s tournament is going to be. Could it be Duke, a number-one seed with all the moxie that a defending national champion should have? Is it Notre Dame, with their rich football tradition and their more-than-budding basketball dominance? Does a team like St. John’s have a chance? They’ve played a really tough schedule all year and proven they can beat anyone. Is there a star ready to emerge? Who is really favorite this year?

The favorite, and undisputed champion of the tournament every year is, in fact, The Unexpected.

Last season, it was Butler, whose poise and talent led them to the final and a half-court heave away from a National Championship. Though the perennial Horizon League heavyweights are always good, they are still from the Horizon League and yet, they still made it to the championship game.

When talking about the unexpected, we can talk all about Bryce Drew’s Valparaiso team making it through to the Sweet 16. Western Kentucky, Davidson, and George Mason all come to mind when talking about tournament surprises. When Princeton beat UCLA, it was my first experience of being, literally, upset by the outcome of a game (Go Bruins).

Upset City?

Though there will be some upsets this year—there always are—I want to make an argument for going “with the chalk” while filling out your brackets. In the 24-hour news cycle sporting world, there is so much information that it’s hard to sort it out. This is the untenable job of the selection committee.

Where there might have been systems in place 20 years ago to ensure correct seeds, it was an inexact science. Committee members had to tout the teams that they saw from their region. Perennial powers were given the benefit of the doubt because there just weren’t as many opportunities to watch basketball or gather the statistical information that is now available.

Like the rest of America, I’m left in the dark about the exact process for seeding the teams, but I think it’s safe to say that the gentlemen in the room have more information at hand than ever before. This is why I am predicting that, starting about five years ago, there was more “chalk” than people expect, despite the parody we have seen in college basketball over the past 10-20 years.

This was my prediction in the past as well. A few years ago, the one 12-seed I picked to win was the only one that lost. While my general “when in doubt, go with the chalk” mantra might not ring true over one year or even two, I think it will start to move more and more that way.

Look out West in 2011

I’m not revealing all of my quality picks (sure to go wrong) yet, but I will say this: The Pac-10 will surprise people. Everyone has been so down on the conference all year, and for good reason. Games seem long, teams grind, and there aren’t a lot of flashy stars. But UCLA, Arizona, and Washington all have a realistic chance of some upsets.

UCLA could match-up with Florida in the second round, and you know that Ben Howland would like nothing more than to get Billy Donovan’s team back for the butt-kickings they took in the championship game and the Final Four in recent years past.

Washington is, without question, the most talented team coming from the Pac 10. Lorenzo Romar and Steve Lavin were both assistant coaches on the 1995 UCLA championship team, and Romar seems to have channeled Lavin in his ability to recruit top-notch talent. While Romar’s teams still manage to lose games they shouldn’t throughout the year, they are too talented to be ignored. Having a very good, experienced, and talented point guard in Isaiah Thomas doesn’t hurt either.

Arizona is on the rise too. While I don’t have them going as far as UCLA or Washington, Derrick Williams (The Whole Enchilada from La Mirada) is a dominant player. Talent usually prevails in the tournament and, like Washington, Arizona has a lot of talent.

Look for the Pac-10 to offer some surprises.

Are there too many teams in the tournament?

While amid conversation this week, I realized that there are games starting on Tuesday night and that the four games that are being played before Thursday aren’t just the eight worst teams. Two of the games will be played by four at-large teams; presumably the four ‘last’ teams to get into the field of 68. I’m still trying to process how I feel about:

a) the first “round” of the tournament now being 6 days long, and..

b) 12-seeds who have to play a “play-in” game.

Call me a purist, but I think I’d prefer to stay with the 64-team field. Long and spread-out events like the NFL Draft (is it 3 days now?) or the BCS, seem to water-down the actual event for me. Part of what makes the tournament fun is that we haven’t had any basketball for a week now, and then there are 48 games crammed into 4 days on the first weekend – all of which are important.

In it’s “new” format, the tournament loses some of that “excitement” and “frenzy,” as the games are spread out over an entire week. I’m 29 and probably the demographic that the tournament committee wants watching the games, but I’m also busy. I have other things in my life, including a job. Being focused on the tournament for six days instead of four is a little too much for me.

I’ll take my four days of joy – tracking who gets upset and who can achieve what every team strives for – to survive. And advance.

owen@fansmanship.com